Great Reporting of a Sad Story

December 28th, 2008

If you want insight into what went wrong in the housing world from 2000 - 2006 please read in print or online “Saying Yes to Anyone, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans.” This article published today (December 28) in the New York Times and reported by Peter Goodman and Gretchen Morgenson does an excellent job pulling back the curtain on the horrors of the housing-boom lending world.

In researching and writing my own book on this subject, I thought that I had seen and heard everything. But Goodman’s and Morgenson’s article reveals conduct I had not found: kickbacks to real estate agents for referring mortgage applications to Washington Mutual. This activity would seem to be a clear violation of the Real Estate Settlement and Practices Act (RESPA). And shame on the real estate agents who took the money and then pushed their homebuyer clients (in some cases non-English speaking) into loan products that eventually caused loss and heartache to overextended borrowers.

During the housing boom, Washington Mutual grew on the basis of fraud and deceit. Their system of underwriting was apparently oblivious to the laws of our country - let alone to any sense of fair dealing. In my view, people who knowingly perpetrated these frauds should be investigated and if appropriate, prosecuted.

The fact is that if any citizen of this country presents a false loan application to a bank and then gets approved and the bank loses money, that applicant may well be prosecuted for bank fraud. So, then, why not executives and their no-questions-asked underlings? Washington Mutual shareholders lost billions. But what is worse is that the U.S. taxpayer, the ultimate backer of banking in this country, has lots hundreds of billions on this kind of conduct. And, to add to the pain, many decent people (yes, some were greedy and willing, but some were also naïve and trusting) have lost their savings, their credit rating and their pride because of the conduct of overaggressive bank employees who had no rule but to push debt on people.

This whole system was allowed to function and prosper — and enrich the bank’s executives — because government regulators were in “hands off” mode. The current Administration did not find reason to question the means when the ends — a booming housing market (at least for a time) — justified everything. OK, well now the bloom is off the rose. I hope that with a new Administration some of the excesses that should have been regulated out of existence (but were not) will be investigated and pursued so that at least people will think twice before ever playing these awful games again - and hurting so many average citizens.

Finding the Bezzle

December 22nd, 2008

For many of us, the financial meltdown has been a wake-up call. A reminder that oftentimes the assumptions we make when times are good do not hold up when the economy falters.

The meltdown has reminded me that just because methodologies and technologies may advance, human nature does not. As a result there is a lot to be learned from understanding history. As someone said, “the past is prologue.”

Ten years ago I read a book by John Kenneth Galbraith titled The Great Crash 1929. This book was written in 1954 and was an analysis of the stock market boom of the late 1920’s — leading of course to the crash in 1929 and the Great Depression in the 1930’s.

Recently I reread this book.

In a fascinating observation that has amazing relevance today (54 years after the book was written), Galbraith analyzes the commonly-held belief that the U.S. suicide rate increased during the Depression. He concludes that any increase was nominal. HOWEVER, what the Great Depression did cause was the discovery of a whole new slew of embezzlers. Since I can’t do better than Galbraith’s writing, here is an excerpt:

In many ways the effect of the crash on embezzlement was more significant than on suicide. … At any given time there exists an inventory of undisclosed embezzlement. This inventory - it should perhaps be called the bezzle - amounts at any moment to many millions of dollars. In good times people are relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. … Under these circumstances the rate of embezzlement grows, the rate of discovery falls off, and the bezzle increases rapidly. In depression all this is reversed. … Just as the (stock market boom) accelerated the rate of growth (of embezzlement), so the crash enormously advanced the rate of discovery.

Or, as said by Warren Buffet: “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”

In good times like the housing and stock market boom of the last decade, embezzlers work their magic and many of us fall under their spell. But come economic problems and the latest bad boys — Bayou Capital (Samuel Israel), Marc Dreier (the lawyer to the stars) and now of course Bernie Madoff are revealed as the embezzling frauds that they have always been. The fact is that these guys have been running their bezzle for many years because all of us “smart” people get lazy in our thinking. Not until the jig is up do we ask ourselves “how could Madoff guarantee 10% - 15% annual returns year after year?”

As Galbraith so correctly identified, the bezzle is always in play. And no matter how much money we spend on new government regulators, these police types can never catch all the bad guys. The responsibility is ours to exercise reasonable caution in good times and bad. Israel, Dreier, and Madoff only exist because, as Galbraith said: “in good times, people are relaxed, trusting and money is plentiful.”

Top Ten Real Estate Books of 2008

December 19th, 2008

Of course the skinny books are at number one. [wink] [wink]

The list author says: “Top Ten Real Estate books of 2008″

The Skinny On: The Housing Crisis What Every Homeowner and Homebuyer NEEDS TO KNOW!!!
1.  The Skinny On: The Housing Crisis What Every Homeowner and Homebuyer NEEDS TO KNOW!!! by Jim Randel
$12.95 Used & New from: $8.95

4.9 out of 5 stars See all reviews (15 customer reviews)

The Great Crash of 1929
2.  The Great Crash of 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith
$9.71 Used & New from: $7.56

3.9 out of 5 stars See all reviews (53 customer reviews) | 2 customer discussions

The Subprime Solution: How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It
3.  The Subprime Solution: How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It by Robert J. Shiller
$11.53 Used & New from: $9.99

3.1 out of 5 stars See all reviews (22 customer reviews)

Read the rest of this entry »

Top Ten Books on the Subject of Willpower

December 15th, 2008

Of course The Skinny is #1 [wink] [wink]

The list author says: “The top ten books on the subject of willpower.”

The Skinny on Willpower: How to Develop Self Discipline
1.  The Skinny on Willpower: How to Develop Self Discipline by Jim Randel
$12.95

5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (1 customer review)

The Power of Now: A Guide to Spiritual Enlightenment
2.  The Power of Now: A Guide to Spiritual Enlightenment by Eckhart Tolle
$8.40 Used & New from: $4.00

4.3 out of 5 stars See all reviews (988 customer reviews) | 5 customer discussions

The Power of Full Engagement: Managing Energy, Not Time, Is the Key to High Performance and Personal Renewal
3.  The Power of Full Engagement: Managing Energy, Not Time, Is the Key to High Performance and Personal Renewal by Jim Loehr
$10.20 Used & New from: $6.00

4.5 out of 5 stars See all reviews (97 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion

Read the rest of this entry »

Did Journalists Cause the Housing Bust?

December 9th, 2008

In speaking with professionals in the residential real estate business, I find that many of them harbor hard feelings toward the business press. They feel that one of the precipitating forces of the housing bust was the drumbeat of the media asking in headlines:

“When Will the Housing Boom Turn Into a Bust?”

Some of my friends in the residential real estate world feel that the media treatment of this subject was a self-fulfilling prophecy. That the media, by asking this question over and over in the news (note the text - not if the boom turns into a bust, but when) created anxiety in home buyers which in turn caused them to stop buying — the result being the beginnings of a bust.

Whereas I feel that the criticism of journalists is a bit harsh (the major reason for the housing bust was the large number of nutty mortgage loans being made), there is something to it.

The thing about housing is that it is a very subjective purchase. And when the media harps on a subject loud and long enough, people get spooked. And when spooked, people modify their behavior and in the case of the housing world, that means less or lower offers to buy.

Journalists don’t care about the housing market - and nor should they. It is not their job to prop up the economy. But, where I think there is merit to the criticism is in the grey-area intersection between reporting the news and selling stories.

The media knows what grabs people’s attention (and the more attention you have, the more advertising you can sell). If, by way of a simplistic example, the headlines were:

“A Review of the Housing Market and Its Future for Growth.”

fewer people would have bought papers, clicked on the story, or stayed tuned for a newscast. And, just maybe, the eventual bust would have been a little more gradual than a step off the edge of a cliff.

I am not sure where the line is between responsible journalism and marketing news. But, at least as applies to the housing crisis, the media may have pushed the process a bit but it was not the cause - and nor will it be the solution.

An Excerpt from The Skinny On: The Housing Crisis (Clover Leaf 2008)

2008-12-08-panel1.jpg

2008-12-08-panel2.jpg

2008-12-08-panel3.jpg

An Excerpt from The Skinny On: The Housing Crisis (Clover Leaf 2008)

Read the rest of this entry »